环境雌激素联合作用的分析与预测  

Analysis and prediction of combination effects of estrogenic environmental pollutants

作　　者：张晖[1] 孔繁翔[2] 王世和[1] 于洋[2] 张民[2] 陈美军[2] 谭啸[2] 钱善勤[2] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学土木工程学院 [2]中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所湖泊与环境国家重点实验室,南京210008

出　　处：《东南大学学报（自然科学版）》2008年第3期488-492,共5页Journal of Southeast University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(40671068,40471045)

摘　　要：探讨环境雌激素的联合作用和混合物环境风险评价方法.通过对鲫鱼血浆卵黄蛋白原含量的相对变化和暴露浓度的非线性回归分析得出17α-乙炔基雌二醇(EE2)、17β-雌二醇(E2)、双酚A(BPA)、辛基苯酚(OP)及其等毒性固定浓度比例混合物产生雌激素效应的剂量-反应关系;应用相加作用数学模型根据单个化合物的数据预测混合物效应.各化合物非线性回归分析结果均以Weibull函数拟合效果最好(R2≥0.92);通过浓度相加模型计算的混合物效应与实验结果有很好的一致性,表明了4种化合物呈现相加作用方式,在低于单个化合物的有效作用浓度下也会产生显著的混合物效应.说明了现行只对单个化合物进行的环境风险评价可能低估了混合物的环境风险,有待进一步完善.The method of the combined effects of environmental contaminant and mixture environmental risk assessment is discussed. A nonlinear regression is adopted to analyze the changes of plasma vitellogenin concentration in crucian carp via the environmental pollutant exposure concentration, and the concentration-response relationship is determined for the single chemical of estradiol （E2 ） , ethynylestradiol （ EE2 ）, bisphenol A （ BPA）, 4-tert-octylphenol （ OP）, and that of the mixed compounds at equipotent concentrations, the mixture being tested using a fixed-ratio design. The effects of the mixture can be predicted using a mathematical model based on the concentration and potency of the individual mixture components. For the findings of non-monotonic dose-response relationship, Weibull function is indicated as the best-fit function （R2 〉10. 92） with curve estimation. The observed effects of the mixture are found to be consistent with the predicted one, which is calculated by the biomathematical methods of concentration addition. The results indicate that four chemicals act together in an additive manner, and there can be a risk of mixture effects, even when each component is present at a low and individually ineffective concentration. Existing environmental risk assessment procedures are insufficient in their ability to evaluate the combined effects of chemical mixtures, therefore further improvement is needed.

关 键 词：环境雌激素 剂量-反应关系 联合作用 浓度相加 独立作用 

分 类 号：X171.5[环境科学与工程—环境科学] R994.6[医药卫生—毒理学]