基于CSIs、FIS、WLC、FC综合造价预测方法的探讨  

Study on Comprehensive Cost Estimation Method Based on CSIs,FIS,WLS and FC

作　　者：段晓晨[1] 张小平[1] 张建龙[2] 

机构地区：[1]石家庄铁道学院经济管理分院,河北石家庄050043 [2]中国人民大学财政金融学院,北京100872

出　　处：《铁道学报》2008年第3期104-109,共6页Journal of the China Railway Society

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70373032)

摘　　要：可行性研究决策阶段投资估算的准确与否对整个项目的投资控制起着决定性的作用,目前拟建铁路建设项目投资估算方法在类似工程数据情况下,对具有类似项目的分部分项工程,根据定额估算指标或建立类似工程数据的线性关系分析模型进行简单估算,对无类似项目的分部分项工程,也往往根据相似工程和专家经验进行比较类推和综合而成,不仅计算工作量大,而且由此造成误差和可靠性不稳定。本文试图依据全生命周期造价WLC和显著性成本CS理论建立预测WLC的显著性成本项目CSIs测算模型进行投资估算,当新建项目没有类似工程条件下,通过模糊聚类FC方法对新建项目的CSIs的进行"类似度"聚类,分解为有类似项目和无类似项目的CSIs,对前者通过模糊聚类FC方法预测造价,对后者则充分利用专家经验,通过模糊推理系统FIS方法预测CSIs造价和显著性因子csf数据,不仅能够简化计算工作量和程序,而且可提高预测准确性。Whether the prime cost of a project is estimated accurately or not in the feasibility study stage plays a decisive role in cost control of the whole project. By the present cost estimation method, the railway project to be construced is resolved into parts and items and the similarity of the parts and items are judged by men; the cost of the parts and items with points of similarity is estimated on the basis of the quota indices or the linear relationship model of the similar engineering data;the cost of the parts and items without points of similarity is deduced by comparison and integration with reference to similar projects and expert experience. Large amount of work is involved and the estimation results in possible errors and unstable reliability. Based on the CS（cost-significant） and WLC（whole life cost）theory ,the CSIs（cost-significant items）model is set up in this paper to esti- mate the WLC. When a newly-built railway project has no similar engineering projects, its CSIs are dealt with by fuzzy clustering（FC） and divided into CSIs with similarity and CSIs without similarity. The cost of the former can be forecasted by FC. The cost of the latter and the CSF data can be estimated with the fuzzy inference system （FIS）, thus taking full advantage of expert experience. The workload and procedure of calculation are simplified and the accuracy of estimation is improved. The comprehensive cost estimation method by CSIs,FIS, WLC and FC is suitable for high-tech projects which use new construction techniques ＆ methods,have a small quantity of samples and lack similar engineering projects.

关 键 词：模糊推理系统 模糊聚类 投资估算 全生命周期造价 显著性成本 

分 类 号：F282[经济管理—国民经济]