洪水预报信息用于水库防洪预报调度的风险分析  

Risk analysis for reservoir flood forecast operation based on flood forecast information

作　　者：黄强[1] 刘招[1] 闫正龙[1] 于兴杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学西北水资源与环境生态教育部重点实验室,陕西西安710048

出　　处：《西北农林科技大学学报（自然科学版）》2008年第6期200-204,211,共6页Journal of Northwest A&F University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50679070);陕西省自然科学基金项目(2006D09)

摘　　要：【目的】提高洪水预报子系统风险分析的可信度,探讨将洪水预报信息用于水库防洪预报调度的可行性。【方法】针对水库洪水资料样本不足的问题,引入信息扩散的风险分析方法,并以安康水库防洪预报调度为实例,对6 h入库洪水预报信息应用于安康水库洪水预报调度中的风险问题进行了分析。【结果】提出了水库防洪预报调度风险分析的内容和定义,求得基于6 h洪水预报信息的安康水库调洪风险率约为25%,能满足水资源系统对风险率的规定要求。【结论】分析过程和分析结果显示,在对水库防洪预报调度中的洪水预报子系统进行风险分析时,采用信息扩散的风险分析方法,可有效解决预报信息样本不足的问题,充分提高分析结果的可信度,将洪水预报信息用于水库的防洪预报调度决策是可行性的。[Objective] The study was done to improve the reliability of the risk analysis in reservoir flood operation using flood forecast information, and the feasibility of reservoir flood operation using flood forecast information was discussed. [Method] As for flood forecast data deficiency problems, the information diffusion theory was introduced and Ankang reservoir was taken for example, the risk analysis was spread in terms of flood operation using 6 h flood forecast information. [Result] The content and definition of flood forecast operation risk analysis was put forward,and the risk of Ankang reservoir using 6 h flood forecast scheme was analyzed and the risk ratio of the flood forecast subsystem was about 25% ,which met the water resources system demand for risks. [Conclusion] The analysis process and its result indicated that it was effective to solve the sample data shortage problem by taken information diffusion theory in risk analysis of reservoir flood forecast operation, and the reliability of the risk analysis result was improved effectively, moreover, the feasibility of reservoir flood operation using flood forecast information was proved further.

关 键 词：水库 洪水预报调度 洪水预报信息 风险分析 信息扩散 

分 类 号：TV697.11[水利工程—水利水电工程]