基于环流分型的广西冰雹潜势预报研究  

Research on Hail Potential Forecast Happened in Guangxi Based on Circulation Classification

作　　者：农孟松[1] 祁丽燕[2] 黄明策[2] 曾小团[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院 [2]广西气象台

出　　处：《气象》2008年第6期46-52,共7页Meteorological Monthly

摘　　要：利用常规观测资料,在对广西4个区域冰雹气候特征分析的基础上,对造成冰雹的环流形势分为华北低槽型、高原东部低槽型和南支槽型。检索出数值预报产品有物理意义的预报因子,采取判别分析法和指标叠套法制作广西冰雹的潜势预报。结果表明,指标叠套法优于判别分析法。基于数值模式输出场的参数估计,对于不同参数设置、不同阈值范围来制作广西冰雹落区的概率预报试验,过程预报有一定效果,但落区预报方法还有待于进一步改进。By using routine observation data, the climate characteristics of the hail in four areas of Guangxi are analyzed. The circulation patterns that causes hail are classified to be three kinds： Huabei trough, east plateau trough, south branch trough. By searching the forecast factors with physics meaning from numerical forecast products, the potential forecast of hail is produced by using the discriminate analytical method and index accumulating method. The results show that the index accumulating method is better than the discriminate analytical method. Based on the parameter estimation of numerical model output fields, different thresholds for different parameters are set up to produce the probability forecast of the falling area for the hail happened in Guangxi. Process forecast has some effect while the falling area forecast needs to be improved.

关 键 词：冰雹 环流分型 潜势预报 参数估计 阈值 概率预报 

分 类 号：P458.121.2[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X16[环境科学与工程—环境科学]