KNN方法在11-3月中国近海测站日最大风速预报中的应用  

Application of an Updated KNN Method to Daily Maximum Wind Forecast for Coastal Weather Station from November to March

作　　者：涂小萍 赵声蓉[1] 曾晓青[2] 刘还珠[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心 [2]兰州大学大气科学学院

出　　处：《气象》2008年第6期67-73,共7页Meteorological Monthly

摘　　要：应用自组织神经网络方法对欧洲中心(ECMWF)2003年1月1日至2006年12月31日逐日数值预报产品分析场进行天气形势分型,发现11—3月影响我国的天气形势基本属于同一类型。对2004—2007年11—3月ECMWF逐日数值预报产品进行动力诊断,提取与中国近海16个测站日最大风速相关较好的预报因子,将改进后的KNN方法作为预报手段,建立11—3月近海测站日最大风速预报模型,并对2007年1—3月16个测站进行逐日检验,结果表明该方法对近海测站日最大风速有较好的预报能力。Self-organizing neural network method is applied to classify weather patterns based on daily NWPs of ECMWF from Jan. 1,2003 to Dec. 31,2006. It shows that the weather pattern is similar over China from November to March. Dynamic diagnosis is applied to daily NWPs of ECMWF in November to March in year 2004 - 2007 to pick up predictors which have good corre-lation coefficients with daily maximum wind speed at 16 coastal weather stations. An updated KNN method is used to set up wind speed forecast models for November to March. Daily wind speed forecast for January to March of 2007 is carried out. Results show that KNN method is of good ability in daily maximum wind forecast.

关 键 词：KNN 近海测站 日最大风速预报 交叉验证 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] TU14[建筑科学—建筑理论]