金融全球化的宏观经济稳定效应:理论与经验研究的再认识  

Macro Economic Stability Effect of Financial Globalization:a Reexamination of Theories and Experience Studies

作　　者：刘厚俊[1] 陈六傅[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学经济学院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《理论学刊》2008年第6期30-35,共6页Theory Journal

摘　　要：本文旨在重新考察金融全球化对金融开放国家宏观经济稳定的真实作用。从理论上来说,金融全球化能通过一系列积极作用渠道降低金融开放国家内部宏观经济波动幅度。然而经验研究对此并没有达成一致性意见。文章认为理论与经验研究中出现的这种背离至少可以从两个方面进行解释。一是衡量金融全球化程度的变量具有内生性特点,从而导致实证分析结果产生偏差。而采用金融地理学分析范式能有效地克服这一缺陷,其经验研究与理论预测高度吻合。二是金融全球化对宏观经济的稳定作用更多是间接的和非线性的,金融全球化能否有效地降低宏观经济波动取决于国内金融发展水平、经济规模与结构以及冲击的来源或性质等诸多因素。This article reexamines the actual effect of financial globalization on macro economic stability of the financially open countries.Theoretically speaking,financial globalization can reduce the macro economic fluctuation of the financially open countries by a series of actively functional channels.However experience studies do not agree upon this point of view.This article maintains that this kind of deviation emerging in theory and experience studies can at least be explained from two aspects.Firstly,the variable measuring the degree of financial globalization has an internally born characteristic,thus leading to the deviation of the result of the positive analysis.But this defect can effectively be rectified by adopting the analytical pattern of financial geography,with the experience studies and the theoretical predictions highly identical.Secondly,the stability effect that financial globalization has on the macro economy is more often indirect and nonlinear.Whether financial globalization can effectively reduce macro economic fluctuation or not is determined by lot of factors such as the level of national financial development,the economic scale and structure and the source or nature of impacts.

关 键 词：金融全球化 宏观经济稳定 金融地理学 

分 类 号：F831.6[经济管理—金融学]