基于生态足迹的城市地域可持续发展能力评价--以深圳为例  

Sustainable Development Capacity Evaluation based on Urban Ecological Footprint:A Case Study of Shenzhen

作　　者：吴健生[1] 李萍[1] 张玉清[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学深圳研究生院,城市人居环境科学与技术重点实验室,深圳518055

出　　处：《资源科学》2008年第6期850-856,共7页Resources Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(编号:40635028,40471002,40571051)

摘　　要：可持续发展能力的定量评估是可持续发展研究的关键领域，基于生态足迹计算的发展能力指标是较有效的评价指标之一。本研究应用生态足迹模型，按不同土地类型与不同消费类型计算了2005年深圳的生态足迹，分析了生态赤字构成并给出生态足迹矩阵，以使政策建议更有针对性；修正了Ulanowicz的发展能力模型，将万元GDP生态赤字（盈余）因子引入计算公式中，对深圳生态经济系统的可持续发展能力进行了评价。研究结果表明：2005年深圳人均生态赤字为3．16hm^2／人，生态足迹是其可利用生态承载力的57倍；1986年～2005年深圳生态赤字扩大10倍，20年间系统稳定性逐渐下降，近年有向良性化方向好转的趋势，2003年资源利用效率最高；生态经济系统可持续发展能力持续上升，2005年最大，为6.49，是20年前的4倍多。Quantitative evaluation of urban sustainable development capacity has been heavily researched. Development capacity indicators based on the calculation of an ecological footprint are an effective means of evaluation. The ecological footprint of Shenzhen in 2005 was calculated using different land use types and consumption categories. The composition of ecological deficit and ecological footprint matrix were also analyzed for policy applications. Ulanowicz＇s development capacity model was adjusted by introducing a factor of ecological deficit/surplus per 10 000 RMB of GDP, and then used to evaluate the sustainable development capacity of the ecological and economic systems of Shenzhen. The ecological deficit of Shenzhen in 2005 was 3.16 hm2 per capita, and the ecological footprint is about 57 times greater than capacity. During 1986 - 2005, the ecological deficit increased by more than ten times. Sustainable development capacity continued to rise, and was highest in 2005 at 6.49, nearly four times that of 20 years ago. The stability of the system has also gradually declined. Resource utilization efficiency reached its highest point in 2003. Results of this study show that it is not accurate to determine whether an urban area is sustainable based only on a single ecological footprint model. Based only on the change in ecological deficit over the past 20 years, it could be concluded that Shenzhen＇s current development is not sustainable. However, the city is still developing rapidly. The altered model of sustainable development capacity includes ecological, economic, social and other factors, which can be used to evaluate the sustainable development capacity of an urban area more comprehensively and accurately. We make the following recommendations on sustainable development in Shenzhen： First, the city should encourage the construction of a conservation-oriented society, promote recycling of resources and control excessive urban consumption. The consumption of industrial accounts has exceeded more than half o

关 键 词：生态足迹分析 发展能力 万元GDP生态赤字 深圳 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学] TU984[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]