存在封存期权时突变因素对企业决策的影响  

Effect of Unexpected Factors on Firms' Decisions When New Technology Commercialization Project Can Be Suspended

作　　者：袁蔡群[1] 仝允桓[1] 唐方成[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学技术创新研究中心,北京100084

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2008年第3期50-56,共7页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点(70233001);高等院校博士学科专项基金项目(0510309)

摘　　要：将新技术商品价格描述为混合的布朗运动/泊松跳跃过程,考察未来可能出现的能使价格发生突然改变的因素对企业新技术商业化决策的影响,通过模型的一组模拟数值解给出了特定情况下企业进入、封存、重启和退出的临界值,并研究了各临界值对泊松过程参数的依赖,同时发现由于存在封存和重启项目的可能性,降低了企业投资和退出的临界值。Under the assumption that the price of new technology commodities follows a mixed Brownian motion/Poisson jump process, strategic decisions of enterprise are analyzed and the impact of the factors which can lead the commodities＇ price to a jump change on the corporations＇ decisions is investigated. By certain numerical illustration, our research presents the optimal entry, suspension, restart and exit thresholds, and the dependence of these thresholds on Poisson parameters is studied. Further, the research finds that the possibility of suspending and restarting a project can decrease the firm＇s optimal entry and exit thresholds.

关 键 词：新技术商业化 封存 跳跃过程 决策临界值 

分 类 号：F272.3[经济管理—企业管理] F830.59[经济管理—国民经济]