基于随机需求的供应链产供销计划协同模型研究  

Research on Coordinated Supply-Production-Distribution Plan Model in Supply Chain under Stochastic Demand

作　　者：田俊峰[1,2] 杨梅[3] 李胜[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学工商管理学院现代物流研究所 [2]四川西南国科物流工程研究中心,四川,成都,610041 [3]铁道第二勘察设计院交通规划研究院

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2008年第3期62-67,共6页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(07JC630039);国家科技支撑计划(2006BAH02A09);国家自然科学基金(70502028)

摘　　要：考虑随机客户需求,研究从供应商到最终客户的多层供应链网络产供销计划协同问题。根据给定的假设条件和问题的分析,首先从系统整体优化的角度,建立带有补偿问题的多周期二级随机规划模型,然后提出了优化-仿真相结合的模型求解策略。最后,给出仿真数据进行算例分析,对比采取协同和异步方式制定产供销计划在总成本方面的差异,分析基于随机需求和确定性平均需求的产供销计划在总成本方面的分布特性,计算结果表明随机需求条件下的产供销计划协同模型一方面可以显著缩减供应链总成本,另一方面可以有效控制原材料采购量、产品产量和发货量,减少库存,从而降低客户需求波动带来的市场风险。Considering stochastic consumer demand, the paper studies coordinated supply-production-distri-bution plan problem in multi-tier supply chain network from suppliers to end consumers. A multi-period two-stage stochastic programming model with resourse problem is constructed according to the assumptions and analysis of the problem, which aims to wholly optimizing supply-production-distribution. The solving strategy is also brought forward for the stochastic model by hybrid optimization and simulation. Finally, a demonstration analysis is given to validate effectiveness of the model by using simulated data. The difference of cost is compared on supply-production-distribution plan adopting the synchronous and asyn-chronous ways. The distributional characteristic of cost is analyzed about supply-production-distribution plan under stochastic and deterministic mean demand. The computational result shows that the coordinated supply-production-distribution plan model under stochastic demand can remarkably reduce the total supply chain cost as well as efficiently control the quantity of supply-production-distribution and decrease the in-ventory so as to depress the market risk for customer＇s demand fluctuation.

关 键 词：供应链 产供销 协同 仿真 

分 类 号：F273[经济管理—企业管理] TP301.6[经济管理—国民经济]