基于相空间重构的一阶加权局域预测法在溶解氧预测中的应用  

Add-weighted One-rank Local-region Method Based on Phase Space Reconstruction and Application to Dissolved Oxygen Prediction

作　　者：邹志红[1] 冯为[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学经济管理学院,北京10083

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2008年第13期70-75,共6页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(50778009)

摘　　要：将混沌理论引入到水质预测中,分析海河溶解氧时间序列,进行相空间重构和计算最大Lyapunov指数.结果表明,海河溶解氧时间序列具有混沌特性,可以对其进行短期预测.在此基础上,应用一阶加权局域预测模型进行了预测,预测结果具有一定的精度,为水质预测研究提供了新的思路.Apply chaos theory to the prediction of water quality, time series of dissolved oxygen of Hai River are analyzed, reconstruct phase space and calculate maximum Lyapunov exponent. The results show that dissolved oxygen time series of Hai River has chaotic property. It appears that short term forecasting of water quality is feasible. On the base of last work, water quality of river has been forecasted by using an add-weighted one-rank local-region method, the precision of results can be accepted. It offers a new method to the prediction of water quality.

关 键 词：溶解氧预测 混沌 相空间重构 时间序列 

分 类 号：O415.5[理学—理论物理] X824[理学—物理]