三江平原地下水埋深时间序列的混沌研究  

Chaos Studies on Series of Groundwater Depth in Sanjiang Plain

作　　者：付强[1] 李国良[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北农业大学水利与建筑学院,哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2008年第3期31-34,共4页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(30400275);黑龙江省青年科学基金项目(QC04C28)

摘　　要：三江平原是我国最大的淡水沼泽区和重要的商品粮生产基地,地下水资源是该地区发展井灌水稻极为宝贵的源泉,但同时地下水系统又是一个复杂的非线性系统。首先,应用功率谱分析法对该地区地下水埋深序列进行定性分析;然后,在相空间重构的基础上,通过计算特征量Kolmogorov熵和关联维,得出三江平原地下水埋深序列中存在明显的混沌特征;最后,应用基于关联度的局域加权线性回归预测法进行混沌预测研究,得出比较理想的预测结果,为应用混沌理论进行三江平原地下水埋深变化规律研究提供依据。It is the largest swamp area of freshwater and the important production base of commodity food grain in China. The groundwater resource plays an important role in the development of well-irrigation paddy. The groundwater system is one kind of complicated nonlinear system. Firstly, the series of groundwater depth in sanjiang plain were analyzed qualitatively through power spectral analysis. Secondly, the conclusion that there is obvious chaos characteristic in the series of groundwater depth in Sanjiang plain was drawn through calculating the characteristic quantities,which are the Kolmogorove entropy and the correlative dimension of groundwater depth series, based on the reconstruction of state space. At last, the method of local addingweight linear regression forecasting based on degree of incidence was applied to the series and the ideal results were got. The theoretical evidence would be provided for applying the chaos theory to study the variable law of groundwater depth in Sanjiang plain.

关 键 词：混沌研究 功率谱分析 相空间重构 特征量 局域加权线性回归预测 

分 类 号：P332.3[天文地球—水文科学]