船舶预报爆发性气旋的综合方法和模式图表  

A synthetical method and model of forecasting explosive cyclone for onboard application

作　　者：张永宁[1] 李栖筠[1] 李志华[1] 高超[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学航海学院

出　　处：《大连海事大学学报》1997年第4期6-10,共5页Journal of Dalian Maritime University

基　　金：中远总公司"九五"重点攻关项目

摘　　要：根据气旋爆发性发展的天气气候特征，综合分析地面图上东亚大陆冷高压、５００ｈＰａ东亚大槽和云系发展模型等对爆发性气旋的贡献，结合数值预报产品，判断有无气旋作爆发性发展．这种综合预报方法为船舶实现气旋爆发性发展的短期预报提供了可能性．ccording to synopic climatological Characteristics of the cyclone that is explosively developing, in this paper the contributions of cold high of EastAsian continent in the surface, EastAsian trough of 500hPa and developing pattern of cloud photograph to explosive cyclone have been synthetically analysed. By means of comparison with the result of numerical weather forecast, a decisionwhether extratropic cyclone will explosively develop or notis made. This comprehensive method provides the possibility of making short term forecast of explosive cyclone on a ship.

关 键 词：航海 天气预报 爆发性气旋 云型 船舶 模式图表 

分 类 号：U675.12[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程] P456.1[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]