基于三指标量的中长期负荷预测综合模型  

Comprehensive models for mid-long term load forecast based on three-target quantities

作　　者：李春祥[1] 牛东晓[2] 孟丽敏[1] 熊伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学信息与网络管理中心,河北保定071003 [2]华北电力大学工商管理学院,河北保定071003

出　　处：《华东电力》2008年第6期10-14,共5页East China Electric Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70671039)

摘　　要：针对中长期负荷预测的特点,提出基于三指标量,即指标总量、指标增长量和指标增长率的综合模型。首先构建层次分析模型,分别对3个指标量进行分析评价,根据模拟预测误差、模型拟合度、模型专家信任度和预测趋势可信度等4个准则优选出每个指标量的最优预测模型。构建了基于预测有效度的组合模型,对3个优选模型的预测结果进行拟合预测。实验结果表明,具有较高的预测精度。According to the characteristics of the mid-long term load forecast, a comprehensive model based on threetarget quantities, i.e. the target gross quantity, the target increase quantity, and the target increase rate, is proposed. The Analytic Hierarchy Process （AHP） model to analyze and appraise the three-target quantities respectively was first constructed, and the optimal forecast model for each quantity was selected based on the simulation forecast error, the model fitting degree, the expert credit, and the forecast result reliability. Then the combination model based on the forecast efficiency degree was established to synthesize the three selected models＇ forecast results. Experimental results show that the comprehensive model has high forecast precision.

关 键 词：负荷预测 中长期 AHP 预测有效度 综合模型 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]