基于市场流通模型的一般居民有害污染物膳食暴露评价--以日本鱼贝类膳食摄入途径二噁英类暴露为例  

Probabilistic Estimation of Dietary Exposure to Hazard Chemicals for General Population on the Basis of a Circulation Model——A Case Study on Dietary Exposure to Dioxins in Fish in Japan

作　　者：曹红斌[1] 于云江[2] 

机构地区：[1]地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室 [2]中国环境科学研究院,北京1000121

出　　处：《应用基础与工程科学学报》2008年第3期403-413,共11页Journal of Basic Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划(2006BAJ10B03)

摘　　要：控制产地的环境污染可以从源头上减少人类经膳食途径对污染物的暴露.本文以一般居民对鱼贝类中二噁英类污染物的膳食暴露为例,通过建立鱼贝类市场流通模型,模拟鱼贝类从产地到消费地的流通,结合具有产地采样点地理信息的鱼贝类二噁英类污染物浓度监测值,推算出不同地区一般人群鱼贝类膳食摄入途径的二噁英类暴露量的概率分布.进一步分析二噁英类暴露量概率分布的主要影响因素,提出针对产地环境的污染削减措施.实证分析以日本为例.与总膳食研究调查结果的比较显示,各研究地区二噁英类暴露量的实测值基本上在本研究方法推测值的90%双侧置信区间内.灵敏度分析表明,沿岸产地县中对暴露量分布影响比较大的主要是捕获量较大或鱼中二噁英类浓度相对较高者.Controlling environmental pollution in production areas of foodstuffs can effectively reduce dietary exposure to hazardous chemicals from the headstream. Taking dietary exposure to dioxins in fish in Japan as an example, this paper first built a circulation model to simulate fish circulation from the production ocean areas to the consumption region. Then, from data on daily dietary intake of fish by production areas for general population in consumption regions and the monitoring data of dioxins concentration in fish with geographical information of sampling site, we estimated the probabilistic distribution of dietary exposure to dioxins in fish for general population in consumption regions, analyzed the major impact factors to the exposure, and finally, pinpointed some specific coastal areas that may attract priority in the implementation of dioxin abatement measures. Our research indicates that the measured dioxins intake via fish dietary consumption in Total Dietary Studies （TDS） are almost within the 5th to 95th percentiles of the estimate range by our presented method for all consumption regions. Sensitivity analysis showed that some with larger production volumes of fish contributed more than others to total exposure.

关 键 词：流通模型 暴露评价 概率分布 二噁英 鱼贝类 

分 类 号：X820.4[环境科学与工程—环境工程]