水环境非点源污染的不确定性及分析方法  

Review on Uncertainty Analysis Methods for Non-point Sources Pollution

作　　者：张巍[1] 郑一[2] 王学军[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学城市与环境学院,北京100871 [2]北京大学工学院,北京100871

出　　处：《农业环境科学学报》2008年第4期1290-1296,共7页Journal of Agro-Environment Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(No.40525003;No.40371105)

摘　　要：本文回顾了水环境非点源污染研究,特别是模型模拟工作的发展状况。对水环境非点源污染中不确定性的来源和分析方法进行了介绍。针对非点源污染模型模拟中的不确定性问题,总结了Morris敏感性筛选法、蒙特卡罗模拟、拉丁超立方抽样法、响应曲面法等定量数学方法,并分析其应用范围和优缺点。阐述了不确定性分析在非点源污染管理中的应用,以及目前的难点和进一步的研究方向。Based on a review of the non-point sources pollution study and modeling simulation, this paper provides an introduction of the causes and analysis methods for uncertainty in non-point sources pollution. The mathematical methods（including the Morris Morris Qualitative Screening Technique, Monte Carlo Simulation, Latin Hypercube Sampling, and Response Surface Method）, that applied to uncertainty analysis of non-point sources pollution simulation models were summarized, and their application limits were discussed. Finally the application of uncertainty analysis in non-point sources pollution management was illustrated, and the existing problem and development trend were presented.

关 键 词：非点源 水环境污染 不确定性 模型 

分 类 号：X522[环境科学与工程—环境工程]