上海世博规划区环境空气质量预测分析  

Prediction and analysis of ambient air quality in the planning area of Expo Shanghai

作　　者：马翔[1] 袁利芬[1] 郑玥[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学环境工程系,上海200093

出　　处：《能源研究与信息》2008年第2期63-68,共6页Energy Research and Information

基　　金：上海市世博会科技攻关重大项目(06dz05809)

摘　　要：在分析上海世博园区空气污染源现状的基础上,对世博会召开期间的污染源做了简单的预测。选取2004年-2007年的连续监测数据,进行污染指数分析。运用灰色系统理论进行分析,得到世博规划区浦西和浦东区域预测污染物浓度的时间响应式,对世博召开期间的空气质量进行预测。结果表明,在2008年-2010年期间,世博规划区的空气质量主要指标将优于《环境空气质量标准（GB3095-1996）》及其2000修改单中的二级标准。Based on an analysis of air pollution in the area Expo, the grey system theory was applied in this paper to forecast the changing tendency of the ambient air quality in the planning area of Expo Shanghai. The data of the years 2004-1007 were used to analyze the pollution index. Based on the GM （1, 1）, the equation of time and concentrations was used to predict the pollutants＇ concentrations in the planning area of Expo Shanghai. The results show that, in the years 2008~2010, concentrations of the main air pollutants in the planning area of Expo area will be measured up to the 2nd standard of Ambient Air Quality Standard （GB3095-1996） ＆ the 2000 Amendment List.

关 键 词：空气质量 灰色系统 GM(1 1)模型 

分 类 号：X823[环境科学与工程—环境工程]