改进Logistic模型在城市人口预测中的应用  

Application of Urban Population Prediction Based on Modified Logistic Model

作　　者：胡喜生[1] 范海兰[2] 宋萍[2] 洪伟[2] 吴承祯[2] 

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学交通学院,福建福州350002 [2]福建农林大学森林生态研究所,福建福州350002

出　　处：《北华大学学报（自然科学版）》2008年第4期370-373,共4页Journal of Beihua University（Natural Science）

基　　金：福建省自然科学基金资助项目(E03001);福建农林大学青年教师基金项目(06B13)

摘　　要：人口系统是一个非常复杂的非线性系统，对人口数量的准确预测能为城市经济可持续发展计划的制定提供重要依据．以福州市1961～2005年的人口统计数据为例，应用2个改进Logistic模型对人口进行预测，借助自编的改进单纯形程序进行了参数估计，并与几种常用模型的预测结果进行比较．结果表明，应用改进Logistic模型对人口数量的预测精度更高，效果更好．The population system is a very complicated nonlinear system and an accurate prediction of urban population will provide the important basis for economy sustainable development. Two modified Logistic models were first applied to predict urban population in this paper based on historical population data of Fuzhou City from 1961 to 2005 ,the population was predicted and compared to several traditional models ,parameters were evaluated by modified simplex method, The results showed that the forecasting result of modified Logistic models was more precise and effective than that of traditional models.

关 键 词：改进Logistic模型 改进单纯形 人口预测 

分 类 号：TU981[建筑科学—城市规划与设计] O29[理学—应用数学]