基于Lyapunov指数的树木年轮时间序列混沌特征分析  

Dynamical character of weather evolutionary process on index of Lyapunov for tree growth-ring

作　　者：王经民[1] 柳建军[1] 刘迎洲[1] 赵斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学理学院,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《西北农林科技大学学报（自然科学版）》2008年第8期132-136,共5页Journal of Northwest A&F University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40171093)

摘　　要：【目的】对陕西关中地区5-6月的降水趋势性进行预测,为揭示关中地区气候演变过程的动态特征提供理论依据。【方法】采用传统Lyapunov指数与非线性局部Lyapunov指数,对关中地区1544-1989年共446年的5-6月降水量代用资料——树木年轮代用资料时间序列非线性动力系统的动力学特征进行分析。【结果】树木年轮代用资料时间序列具有混沌特征,非线性局部Lyapunov指数随时间增加单调减少,相对误差随预报时间的增加而单调增大。【结论】树木年轮代用资料可用于关中地区5-6月降水的趋势性预测。[Objective] Rainfall trend for 5- 6th month in Guanzhong area was forecasted to provide theoretic basis to explore dynamic character of climate evolvement process in Guanzhong area. [Method] Rainfall for 5-6th month in Guanzhong area proxy data from year 1544 to 1989（all 446 years） the tree growth-ring proxy data,that is a non-linear dynamical system,are employed to analyze the dynamical character on the classical and nonlinear local index of Lyapunov. [Result] The results show that the time serial of tree growth-ring is chaotic. The nonlinear local index of Lyapunov increases with time. The increasing ratio of nonlinear function decreases with increasing of first error on time. [Conclusion] There is a trend forecast of rainfall for 5-6th month in Guanzhong area.

关 键 词：树木年轮 关中地区降水 动力系统 LYAPUNOV指数 非线性局部Lyapunov指数 

分 类 号：S117[农业科学—农业基础科学]