基于Shapley值的电力负荷组合预测方法有效性探讨  

Effectiveness of combined forecast of power loads by using Shapley value

作　　者：何小磊[1] 严正[1] 黄涛[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学电气工程系,上海200240

出　　处：《华东电力》2008年第7期51-55,共5页East China Electric Power

摘　　要：组合预测是电力系统实际负荷预测的趋势,但组合系数的设定存在一定困难。部分文献引入合作对策理论和Shap ley值来求解权系数,取得了一定的成果。但在实际应用中却存在问题,通过进一步研究发现,一些方法在使用合作对策时存在理论缺陷,其精度也不理想,甚至可能产生负组合系数。对可能的改进进行的探讨表明,结果并不理想,指出将Shap ley值有效应用于组合预测还不具备足够的有效性。The combined forecast is the trend of practical load forecast. However, its weight is relatively difficult to set. There have been some articles using the Shapley value to solve the weight, but our practice has shown that these methods have some problems. Through deep research, it is found that some methods use Cooperative Games theory incorrectly, and often lack accuracy, and even produce negative weight. Discussion on some possible improvements shows that the results are still not ideal. In all, there are still many difficulties to apply Shapley value to combined forecast.

关 键 词：负荷预测 组合预测 合作对策 SHAPLEY值 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]