中国大陆活动地块边界带地震活动过程及其趋势研究  

Research on the process and tendency of seismicity along the active tectonic boundaries in Chinese mainland

作　　者：邵志刚[1] 张国民[1] 李志雄[1] 夏红[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地震预测研究所,北京100036 [2]中国地震应急搜救中心,北京100049

出　　处：《地震》2008年第3期33-42,共10页Earthquake

基　　金：中国地震局地震预测研究所基本科研业务专项(02076902-11);中国地震局地球物理研究所基本科研业务专项(DQJB06B03)

摘　　要：通过计算前人研究所给出的中国大陆26条活动地块边界带上地震过程的变异系数,分析了各边界带的地震活动类型,结果表明中国大陆东部地区的边界带地震都表现为丛集过程,西部地区大多是泊松过程或者准周期过程,尤其是大陆板块俯冲作用强烈的边界带上地震活动主要呈现为泊松过程,青臧高原北部和东部地区的边界带都表现为准周期过程,并讨论了可能的物理机制。并在以往研究的基础上,基于对数正态分布函数,计算了各边界带目前地震发生的累计概率以及未来五年内地震发生的条件概率,探讨了各活动地块边界带的危险程度等。This research computes the parameters of aberrance along the 26 active tectonic boundaries in Chinese mainland and analyzes the types of earthquake activity. From these parameters, the earthquake activity along the active boundaries in eastern Chinese mainland is clustering; the earthquake activity along the active boundaries in western Chinese mainland is Poisson or quasi-periodic. Especially, the earthquake activity on both northland and eastern Tibet plateau is quasi-periodic due to strong subduction of continental plates. The strong subduction along the peripheral boundaries in western Chinese mainland is Poisson. Based on research on the active boundaries, we calculate the lognormal distribution function, accumulative probabilities and conditional probabilities of the earthquake occurrence along the active boundaries. Then the present seismic activity and risk along these boundaries and the variances of the risk in the coming five years are discussed.

关 键 词：活动地块 边界带 强震活动 对数正态分布 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]