基于GM(1,1)-马尔可夫链的城市机动车保有量预测研究  

Research of City Motor Vehicles Owned Quantity Forecast Based on GM(1,1)-Markov Chain

作　　者：刘志谦[1] 宋瑞[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044

出　　处：《交通标准化》2008年第8期133-136,共4页Communications Standardization

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70371014);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20040004012)

摘　　要：针对城市机动车保有量具有趋势性和不确定性的特点,结合GM(1,1)模型和马尔可夫链模型在预测研究中的优点而建立的GM(1,1)-马尔可夫预测模型,可用于城市机动车在未来年份的保有量的预测研究,且该预测经实例验证,结果令人满意。In allusion to the characteristics of the sequence and the incertainty of city motor vehicles owned quantity, this paper presents the GM （1,1）-Markov chain forecasting model combining the merits of GM （1,1） model and Markov chain model, which could be used to forecast the city motor vehic-les owned in the future. What＇s more, the result through the verification of an intance is satisfying by the example of Beijing vehicles owned forecast.

关 键 词：GM(1 1) 马尔可夫链 机动车保有量 

分 类 号：U121[交通运输工程]