2008年3—5月T213与ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验  

Verification of Medium-range Forecasting Efficiency of T213 and ECMWF and JAPAN Model from March to May 2008

作　　者：王超 

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象》2008年第8期112-118,共7页Meteorological Monthly

摘　　要：我国3—5月冷空气活动频繁,温度变化剧烈,且沙尘天气频发。为检验数值模式的预报效果,积累预报经验,对T213模式96小时预报产品进行检验分析,并与ECMWF及日本模式的预报结果进行对比分析。结果表明:T213、ECMWF及日本模式的中期预报性能均较好。相对地,ECMWF在对中高纬度大型环流的调整及对850hPa温度的预报方面能力稍强。另外,选取2008年5月26—28日发生在我国的一次沙尘天气个例,分析发现日本模式对于引发此次沙尘天气的地面强风的中期预报指示意义较好,T213模式稍差。From March to May every year, frequent cold fronts are usually seen in China. Because of active cold fronts during these 3 months, weather in china is characterized by sharp tempera- tures fluctuations and frequent dusty weather conditions. In order to examine the forecasting effect of numerical model and accumulate forecasting experiences, the 96-hour forecasting product of T213 model were examined and analyzed and also compared its forecasting result with ECMWF model and Japan model. The result is： ECMWF model is more effective in midi-range forecast. As for adjusting macro-scale circulation and forecasting temperatures at 850hPa the ECMWF model has stronger predictive ability than the other 2 models. In addition, a dusty weather process occurred on 26 - 28 May 2008 was chosen, as a case study. Through analyzing this case, we found that Japan models were more effective than the other 2 models in mid-range forecast of the strong surface winds, which caused this dusty weather process.

关 键 词：T213模式 ECMWF模式 日本模式 天气学检验 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P456.7