气候变暖对中国西北地区农作物种植的影响(英文)  

The impact of climate warming on crop planting and production in northwestern China

作　　者：邓振镛[1] 张强[1] 蒲金涌 刘德祥[3] 郭慧[4] 王全福 赵鸿[1] 王鹤龄[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃省(中国气象局)干旱气候变化与减灾重点(开放)实验室,甘肃兰州730020 [2]甘肃省天水农业气象试验站,甘肃天水741020 [3]兰州中心气象台,甘肃兰州730020 [4]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,甘肃兰州730000 [5]兰州市气象局,甘肃兰州730020

出　　处：《生态学报》2008年第8期3760-3768,共9页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家科技部社会公益研究专项资助项目(2004BA901A16,2005DIB5J100);甘肃省科技攻关计划资助项目(2GS042-A44-017);甘肃省自然科学基金资助项目(0710RJZA087,3ZS061-A25-010)~~

摘　　要：采用对农作物生长有指标意义的≥10℃积温和<0℃负积温与农作物适宜种植面积、生长发育速度及产量进行对比统计分析研究,指出气候变暖对中国西北地区农作物种植结构发生了较大改变,冬小麦种植区西伸北扩,棉花面积迅速扩大,多熟制向北和高海拔地区推移。农作物生长发育速度发生了明显变化,春播作物提早播种,喜温作物生育期延长,越冬作物推迟播种,生育期缩短。棉花气候产量明显增加。One major challenge in agro-meteorological research is to accurately predict the impacts of global climate warming on future agricultural production. Towards this effort, the effects of climate warming over the past decades need to be assessed. In this study, we analyzed the effects of the climate warming on crop planting, structure and yield in five Northwestern provinces of China with a focus on Gansu utilizing accumulated temperature （ t〉 10℃, AT）, accumulated negative temperature （ 〈 0℃, ANT） and crop data collected from 1981 to 2003. The analysis led to the following conclusions ： （ 1 ）. Climate warming is the main driving force for the expansion of winter wheat toward North and West, for the rapid increase in cotton planting acreage, and for the expansion of annually multi-crops areas towards north and higher altitude. （2）. Climate warming is the direct cause for early seeding of spring crops, and prolonged growth duration for thermophilic crops and shortened duration for overwinter crops. （ 3 ）. Climate warming is largely attributable to the dramatic increase of cotton yield.

关 键 词：西北地区 喜温及喜凉农作物 气候变暖 生育期 

分 类 号：S16[农业科学—农业气象学]