地表温度和土地利用类型与海南省疟疾流行的相关性  

Correlations between land surface temperature,land use type and malaria epidemics of Hainan province,China

作　　者：温亮[1] 施润和[2] 徐德忠[3] 袁正泉[1] 李承毅[1] 王勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]军事医学科学院疾病预防控制所公共卫生应急处置大队,北京100071 [2]华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海200062 [3]第四军医大学流行病学教研室,陕西西安710033

出　　处：《第四军医大学学报》2008年第15期1391-1394,共4页Journal of the Fourth Military Medical University

基　　金：全军"十一五"面上项目(06MA322);全军"十五"指令性课题(01L078)

摘　　要：目的:分析海南省疟疾流行空间分布与地表温度和土地利用类型的相关性,探索海南省疟疾流行空间分布的环境预测方法.方法:获取2000年海南省雨季(5-10月)各市县疟疾发病资料以及地表温度、土地利用类型构成比等数据,分析疟疾发病率与上述环境因素的相关性,应用负二项回归分析建立发病率的预测模型.结果:海南省2000年雨季各市(县)疟疾发病率与各地的有林地和高覆盖度草地的面积构成比显著正相关;与日间地表温度、夜间地表温度及水田、旱地、水库坑塘、农村居民点和其他建设用地的面积构成比显著负相关;与其他土地利用类型构成比无明显相关性.负二项回归分析引入方程的因子为夜间地表温度及水田、旱地、其他建设用地的面积构成比.结论:海南省疟疾流行空间分布与地表温度和土地利用类型有关,可以利用有关环境指标来预测疟疾流行的空间分布.AIM： To explore the correlations between malaria epidemics and environmental factors such as land surface temperature and land use type in Hainan province, and develop prediction model of malaria epidemics. METHODS： Data on malaria were collected in all 19 counties in Hainan province from May to October, 2000, and percentage of land use types of these counties in this period were extracted from land use type digital map of Ha.nan province, land surface temperatures （LST）were extracted from MODIS images. The correlation coefficients of malaria incidences and these environmental factors were then calculated with SPSS13.0, and negative binomial regression analysis was done with sas 9. 0. RESULTS： The incidence of malaria showed positive correlations to percentage of forest land area and high cover degree of grass land area, and negative correlations to LST in day and night, percentages of paddy field area, dry farmland area, reservoir and pond area, rural residential area and other built-up land area. The parameters which entered prediction model of malaria in negative binomial regression analysis were LST in night, percentages of paddy field area, dry. farmland area and other built-up land area. CONCLUSION： Spatial distribution of malaria epidemics in Hainan province is associated with LST and land use type, and prediction model of malaria epidemics can be developed with index of some environmental factors.

关 键 词：疟疾 地表温度 土地利用类型 负二项回归分析 

分 类 号：R181.2[医药卫生—流行病学]