航道货运量预测方法及其应用  

Application of Genetic Programming to Forecast Waterway Freight

作　　者：朱俊[1] 张玮[1] 钟春欣[1] 吕庆[2] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学交通学院,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学计算机学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《中国港湾建设》2008年第4期14-15,76,共3页China Harbour Engineering

基　　金：国家西部交通建设科技项目(200532822225)

摘　　要：为了精确预测航道未来货运量需求,克服传统预测方法无法实现复杂非线性拟合的缺点,分析了航道货运量的影响因素,探讨了遗传规划方法在航道货运量预测问题上的应用。根据遗传规划中复制、交换、变异等进化方式,建立了基于遗传规划的航道货运量预测模型。以江苏省连申线苏北段历年货运量及区域经济发展状况为样本,采用遗传规划方法自动找出货运量随时间变化的规律,并对未来货运量进行了预测。结果表明,本算法的计算相对误差很小,预测结果合理可信,且优于常用的回归预测,为解决航道货运量等非线性系统预测提供了一条新的途径。In order to accurately forecast the future waterway freight and overcome the disadvantages of the traditional method, a new method based on Genetic Programming （GP） was presented and the influencing factor of waterway freight was analyzed. According to the evolution way of reproduction crossover or mutation, the forecast model of waterway freight based on GP was put forward. In an instance about the waterway freight and economic data of Lian-Shen waterway in Jiangsu province, the changing rules of freight with economics are found by the genetic programming method and the waterway freight of the coming years is forecast. The account resuhs demonstrate that this arithmetic is better than the usual regress method, the relative error is limit, and the prediction is reasonable. Therefore, it provides an effective method to solve non-linear forecasting problem as waterway freight.

关 键 词：水运工程 遗传规划 航道货运量 预测 

分 类 号：U612.14[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]