需求信息滞后下的零售商决策与牛鞭效应分析  

Retail's Decision and the Bullwhip Effect on Delayed Demand Information

作　　者：王伟钧[1] 唐小我[1] 倪得兵[1] 

机构地区：[1]电子科技大学管理学院

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2008年第4期84-89,共6页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：四川省科技攻关项目(04SG011-021)

摘　　要：牛鞭效应是一种在企业经营中广泛存在的普遍现象,对企业的生产经营产生了极大的负面影响。本文考虑一个供应商和一个零售商组成的简单两级供应链系统。在这个系统中,首先建立在需求信息滞后情况下的零售商库存决策和混合决策(库存决策和定价决策)模型;然后进行决策对牛鞭效应的影响分析。结果显示:在需求信息存在滞后的情况下,零售商最优决策的定价和订货点的期望值是确定的,与需求信息滞后期的长度无关;零售商的库存决策能产生牛鞭效应,且牛鞭效应会随需求滞后期增加而逐渐减少;零售商的混合决策能否产生牛鞭效应,取决于需求自相关系数的变化,而与需求滞后期无关,但随着需求滞后期会改变期变化程度。此外,库存决策还是混合决策,在需求不具有滞后时较具有滞后时牛鞭效应表现得较为为减弱;零售商的混合决策与库存决策相比,只有在需求的自相关系数取较小值时,才表现得更为强烈,否则会减弱。因而对于零售商而言,适当的需求信息滞后以及供应商对零售商的定价柔性能减少牛鞭效应。The bullwhip effect, a popular phenomenon in enterprise＇s business,has a very large impact on an enterprise. This paper considers a simple two-stage supply chain consisting of a single retailer and a single vendor. First,we build inventory and mixed decision （ inventory and pricing decision） models for the retailer on the delayed demand information. Then we analyse the impact of decisions on the bullwhip effect. The result shows that we can get the expectation of both princing and order-up-to which have nothing as the delayed period based on retail optimal policy, and the retailer＇s inventory policy can produce the bullwhip effect which will decrease as the delayed period increases when delayed demand information exists, but whether its mixed policy can produce the bullwhip effect according to the demand self correlation parameter, not the delayed period, however, it will decrease as the delayed period increases. Morever, comparing to an inventory decision, the retailer＇s mixed decision will make the bullwhip effect change intensively as demand is less correlated, otherwise change weakly. Therefore, for a retailer,appropriate delayed demand information and pricing flexibility can reduce the bullwhip effect.

关 键 词：牛鞭效应 供应链 定价决策 库存决策 滞后信息 

分 类 号：F270[经济管理—企业管理] C934[经济管理—国民经济]