基于相关分析的跟驰模型及其稳定性  

Car Following Model Based on the Correlation Analysis and Stability of the Model

作　　者：张浩然[1] 王炜[1] 任刚[1] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学交通学院

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（交通科学与工程版）》2008年第4期581-584,共4页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology（Transportation Science & Engineering）

基　　金：国家973计划项目资助(批准号:2006CB705500);国家科技支撑计划项目资助(批准号:2006BAJ18B07);国家自然科学基金项目资助(批准号:50608018)

摘　　要：为了精确地模拟车辆跟驰过程,应用相关分析的方法建立一系列跟驰模型,用微积分的方法解析模型.通过变量筛选,明确了影响车辆跟驰的重要因素有速度差、间距和前车速度.通过对模型的解析,确定了模型参数的合理取值范围以确保模拟的稳定.建立的跟驰模型可以模拟不同车辆之间的跟驰行为,预测跟驰车辆的运动状态,用于智能车辆控制或者用于追尾预警.如果获得了更完备的实验数据,基于相关分析建立跟驰模型的方法可以更精确地考虑到车辆运动状况、动力性能、道路条件、驾驶特性等影响因素.Have been studied applicable and reasonable modeling method of car following model, for achieving precision in simulation of car following proceeding. Adopted stepwise method in variable selection when modeling, independent variables satisfied the selection criteria and had highest relativity with the dependent variable selected to enter the regression equation based on result of variance analysis, variables were accepted by stepwise method, then adopted rejection method, removed the variables have minimum F values and satisfied the rejection criterion. Built a series of car following models by this method, and analyzed models using calculus method. After application of correlation analysis and variable selection, drawing the conclusion that the key factors are speed difference, the spacing and the front vehicle velocity. Through the analysis, had determined reasonable value scope of model parameters guarantees the stability of simulation. Models built in this thesis can be adopted to simulate car following proceedings of various vehicles, forecast running status of the following vehicle, and use in Intelligent Vehicle System （IVS） and collision warning and collision avoidance （CW＆CA） systems. The correlation analysis modeling method can be applied in modeling on consideration of many influence factors, such as vehicle motion state, dynamic performance, road condition and driving condi- tion, and experimentation data is indispensable.

关 键 词：交通仿真 跟驰 跟驰模型 相关分析 稳定性 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]