江汉平原四湖地区涝渍地演替分级及趋势预测  

Succession grading and trend forecasting of waterlogged lowland in Four-lake region of Jianghan Plain

作　　者：刘章勇[1] 何浩[1] 

机构地区：[1]长江大学农学院,湖北荆州434025

出　　处：《生态学杂志》2008年第9期1567-1570,共4页Chinese Journal of Ecology

基　　金：湖北省自然科学基金创新群体项目(2006ABC013);湖北省自然科学基金重点资助项目(2006ABA003)

摘　　要：涝渍地的演替规律研究是制定涝渍地域生态恢复对策的理论基础。本文利用Delphi法确定了四湖地区涝渍地演替级数的衡量指标,即优势植物种群、面积增长最快的涝渍地种养生物、涝渍地面积占耕地面积的百分比、涝渍地的地下水位和土壤有机质氧化稳定性等5项,在此基础上建立了演替级数分级标准,并以洪湖市为例建立了洪湖市涝渍地演替专家信息库,得到了洪湖市的涝渍地演替级数;最后采用ARIMA模型对洪湖市的涝渍地演替级数进行了趋势拟合与未来预测。结果表明,ARIMA模型能较好地拟合并预测涝渍地演替级数的变化趋势。To study the succession pattern of waterlogged lowland is the theoretical basis of making countermeasures for ecological restoration of waterlogged lowland. In this paper, the Delphi method was used to determine the indices of evaluating the succession grading series of the waterlogged lowland in Four-lake region, including dominant plant populations, cultivated living things most quickly increased in the region, area percentage of waterlogged lowland to all farmland, groundwater table of waterlogged lowland, and stability of organic matter oxidization in soil. The evaluating standard of each index was then established. As a case, an expert information database on the succession of the waterlogged lowland in Honghu City was built, and the succession grading grading series in the City was obtained. ARIMA model was used to fit and forecast the succession series of the waterlogged lowland in Honghu City, and the result showed that this model was better in fitting and forecasting the change trend of succession grading of waterlogged lowland.

关 键 词：四湖地区 涝渍地 演替 ARIMA模型 

分 类 号：Q14[生物学—生态学]