基于Verhulst模型的滑坡位移预测研究及其程序化实现  

Displacement Prediction About Huangci Landslide Based on Verhulst Model With Its Realization in Excel VBA

作　　者：程江涛[1] 刘莉[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)工程学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《岩土工程技术》2008年第5期217-222,共6页Geotechnical Engineering Technique

基　　金：2007年中国地质大学(武汉)研究生学术探索与创新基金重点资助项目(CUGYJS0705)

摘　　要：以甘肃省黄茨滑坡位移时间预测为例,在滑坡工程地质条件、成因、发生与发展过程分析的基础上,结合地面监测桩以及位移计监测的位移时间数据,运用Verhulst预测模型建立了该滑坡位移预测研究的思路。在此基础上,运用Ex- cel内嵌的VBA语言编写了相应的位移时间预测预报程序,解决了笔算困难问题。通过具体实例分析,将Verhulst模型、灰色GM(1,1)模型预测结果与实际监测结果进行对比分析,验证了该模型在滑坡位移时间预测中的适用性以及程序的可靠性。研究结果表明,Verhulst预测模型适宜于滑坡临滑预报,而灰色GM(1,1)预测模型适宜于滑坡中短期预测预报,通过Ver- hulst模型预测黄茨滑坡的临滑时间在1995-01-26至1995-01-27之间,预测结果与滑坡实际滑动时间较为一致,由此说明运用Verhulst预测模型对滑坡进行临滑预报是可行的。Taking the forecast and prediction of the Huangci landslide displacement-time for example, through the analysis of landslide engineering geology condition, origin, occurring and developing process, combining with the displacement-time data of the ground monitor pile and the displacement monitor instrument, the research thought of the landslide displacement forecast and prediction by using the Verhulst model is summarized. Based on it, compiling the landslide forecast and prediction program with the inlaid VBA language in Excel, to solve the difficulty on manual computation. Through the example analysis, and comparing the Verhulst model and GM（1,1） model forecasting result with the actual monitoring result, confirming the ap- plicability of the Verhulst model which is used in landslide displacement forecast and prediction as well as the reliability of the program. The result indicated that the Verhulst model is suitable to forecast just before sliding for the landslide, while the GM （1,1） model is suitable to the medium-short term forecast. The impending sliding time of the Huangci landslide which is forecasted by the Verhulst model is between January 26, 1995 and January 27, 1995, and the result is complied with the actual sliding time, which indicated that it＇s feasible to use the Verhulst model for landslide forecast and prediction.

关 键 词：黄茨滑坡 VERHULST模型 GM(1 1)模型 预测预报 程序化 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学] TU311.4[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]