气候变暖成因研究的历史、现状和不确定性  

History,Current State and Uncertainty of Studies of Climate Change Attribution

作　　者：任国玉[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,国家气候中心,北京100081

出　　处：《地球科学进展》2008年第10期1084-1091,共8页Advances in Earth Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“中国地面气温变化趋势中的城市化影响”(编号:40575039);科技部科技支撑项目“全球与中国气候变化的监测和预测”(编号:2001BA611B-01)资助

摘　　要：简要回顾了关于气候变暖成因研究的历史和现状,重点评述了当前气候学界对全球和中国气候变暖原因的认识及其仍存在的不确定性。气候学者对气候变暖与大气中温室气体浓度关系的认识,目前比过去任何时候似乎都更加清晰,但他们眼前仍然弥漫着重重迷雾。引起观测到的气候变暖的因子十分复杂,相关问题的研究仍存在大量不确定性。未来气候变化科学的进步依赖于对这些尚存不确定性的认识水平和削减程度。An overview is made of the research history and current state of climate change attribution, with an emphasis on the studies of possible causes of the recent climate warming around the globe and across China. Also discussed are the remaining uncertainties related to some key issues. Conclusions are drawn from the overview that big progresses in studies of climate change detection and attribution have been made both internationally and domestically since 1980s, but large uncertainties still exist in many aspects of the current research. The uncertainties are mostly related to the quality of instrumental and proxy data, the complicated feedbacks among varied components of climate system, and the research tools such as global and regional climate models. A further development of climate change science will rely on the significant reduction of these uncertainties in the coming decades.

关 键 词：气候变化 地面气温 成因 热岛效应 古气候 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X16[环境科学与工程—环境科学]