我国房地产市场的泡沫检验——基于现值模型  

TEST OF HOUSE PRICE BUBBLE IN CHINA: BASED ON PRESENT VALUE MODE

作　　者：孟勉[1] 李文斌[1] 许东卫[1] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学管理工程学院

出　　处：《经济地理》2008年第5期857-861,共5页Economic Geography

摘　　要：本文以35个大中城市指数为基础,利用现值模型对我国东中西部地区房地产市场泡沫的存在性进行了检验。检验结果表明,我国东部和西部地区存在明显的房地产泡沫,其中东部特别是长江三角洲地区的房价租金比涨幅最大。而中部地区除武汉之外的房价租金比一直较为平稳,几乎不存在泡沫现象。Based on price index of real estate in 35 cities, this paper employs the present value model to test the house price bubble in China. The estimates justify the bubble in the east and west part of China, especially the east area with the highest price-to-rent value increase in Yangtze River Delta economic district. Meanwhile, there does not seem to be any bubble in the middle area as a whole, though the price-to-rent value increase in Wuhan is quite outstanding.

关 键 词：现值模型 房价租金比 泡沫 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]