基于复化Simpson公式和插值的管道腐蚀速率预测  

Application of GM (1,1) Model in Corrosion Predication of Oil and Gas Pipelines Based on Duplicated Simpson Formula and Interpolation

作　　者：石红艳[1] 甘淳静 王志彬[1] 薛旭艳[1] 侯晓犇[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学,四川成都610500 [2]中国石油工程设计有限公司西南分公司,四川成都610017

出　　处：《天然气与石油》2008年第5期33-37,62,共6页Natural Gas and Oil

摘　　要：管道腐蚀是引起管线破坏的主要因素之一,预测管线的腐蚀变化趋势是延长管道寿命,保证管道安全运行的重要步骤。影响腐蚀各因素之间的相互作用十分复杂,实验过程不能控制所有因素变化情况,实验结果分散性比较大,有必要采用各种科学的方法对实验数据进行分析处理。比较分析了主要的油气管道腐蚀速率预测方法,修正并完善了GM(1,1)模型的边界条件,利用复化Simpson公式和Lagrange插值法重新构造了GM(1,1)模型背景值,改进了传统模型只能对等时距时刻的腐蚀速率数据进行预测的缺点,得到全新的GM(1,1)预测模型计算公式,计算简便、使用方便、提高了预测精度。Pipeline corrosion is one of main factors resulting in pipeline damage. Correct forecast of pipeline corrosion trend is very important for extending pipeline service life and ensuring safe operation. Because interactions between factors resulting in pipeline corrosion rate are very complex, any experimental process is beyond control of all the changing factors and all experimental results have more decentralizations, it is necessary to adopt scientific methods to analyze and process the experimental data. Analyzed and compared are major methods of forecasting corrosion rates of oil and gas pipelines, revised and consummated are boundary conditions of GM (1, 1) model. Utilized are the duplicated Simpson formula and the Lagrange interpolation method to reconstruct background values in GM (1, 1) model, which can improve greatly corrosion rate forecast precision.

关 键 词：油气管道 腐蚀 预测 GM(1 1)模型 构造 背景值 

分 类 号：TE988[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备]