城市人口系统在分岔点的演化特征研究  

Study on Evolution of Urban Population System in Bifurcation Point

作　　者：卫郭敏[1] 王辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]太原科技大学应用科学学院,太原030024

出　　处：《太原科技大学学报》2008年第5期402-406,共5页Journal of Taiyuan University of Science and Technology

摘　　要：针对城市人口系统发展到一定阶段出现分岔现象的情况,考虑了分岔模型的稳定性和实际城市人口系统的扰动因素,依据分岔的稳定性理论,对城市人口系统在分岔点附近的演化方式进行分析研究;得出了城市人口系统在分岔点附近的定性演化轨迹;最后讨论了他们分别所对应的真实城市人口数量的变化特征.研究结果表明城市人口系统在分岔点附近的演化可归结为四种方式,且有可能存在人口数量突变以及演化滞后的特性。As for the bifurcation phenomenon in a certain stage of urban population system＇s evolution,based on considering stability of bifurcation model and disturbing factors of real urban population system, we study the behavior of urban population system near the bifurcation point and abtain the evolution orbits of urban population system near the bifurcation point. Finally ,the characteristics of real urban population scale＇s change are discussed. The results show that the behavior of urban population system near the bifurcation point can be concluded to four models according to the variation of disturbing parameters. Furthermore, catasthophe and hysteresis can be happened in the evolution of urban population. Therefore, the evolving behavior of urban population system can be selected by the department of government through changing the disturbing parameters in urban population system near the bifurcation point.

关 键 词：城市人口系统 稳定性 普适开折 分岔模型 

分 类 号：N949[自然科学总论—系统科学]