微山县耕地变化驱动力研究  

Changes and Driving Forces of Cultivated Land in Weishan County

作　　者：宋月君[1,2,3] 吴胜军[1] 任宪友[1] 李涛[4] 冯奇[4] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院测量与地球物理研究所,湖北武汉430077 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049 [3]江西省水土保持科学研究所,江西南昌330029 [4]武汉大学资源与环境科学学院,湖北武汉430079

出　　处：《农业系统科学与综合研究》2008年第4期466-469,475,共5页System Sciemces and Comprehensive Studies In Agriculture

基　　金：国家"973"计划项目(2003CB415201)

摘　　要：根据济宁市微山县1990-2004年的相关统计数据,利用灰色关联分析方法确定了影响耕地面积变化的驱动因子,并对其最大驱动力进行了分析。结果表明：微山县耕地面积变化与农业总产值在工农总产值中的比例关联系数最大,达到0.815 85,其次为粮食单产、农作物播种面积、全社会固定资产投资完成额、GDP、城市化水平、公路客运量和社会消费品零售总额。最后通过其15a间的耕地面积变化数据,建立了耕地面积灰色GM（1,1）预测模型,平均相对误差为2.89%,精度较高,可以用于后期的耕地面积变化预测。According to the relevant statistical data of Weishan county in Jining city in 1990- 2004 year, this paper applies grey incidence of grey system theory to analyze the quantitative relation between the driving forces and cultivated land change, accordingly identifying their function magnitude to cultivated land change. The results of grey incidence analysis demonstrated that the grey integrated incidence degree of the cultivated land change and the ratio of agricultural output in the total output among all the driving forces is the highest, up to 0. 8158 5, and the next is the grain yield per unit area,the crop planting area,the complete entire social fixed asset investment, GDP, the urbanized level,the passenger transport rate of road and the total social consumable in retail sales. Finally, with its 15 years＇cultivated area change data, the GM（1,1） model was established to forecast the cultivated area change. The precision of the model is higher, with the average relative error 2.89% ,The model can be used for forecasting the cultivated area change in the later period.

关 键 词：耕地面积 驱动因子 灰色关联分析 GM(1 1)模型 

分 类 号：F323.211[经济管理—产业经济]