道路交通安全主要影响因素的选择及检验  

Selection and Verification of Main Factors Affecting Traffic Safety

作　　者：李春燕[1] 陈峻[1] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学交通学院,江苏南京210096

出　　处：《现代交通技术》2008年第5期73-76,共4页Modern Transportation Technology

摘　　要：为了更精确地研究未来年的道路交通安全问题，将影响道路交通安全的因素分为定量与定性2种类型，对于定量因素以1983～2005年间的交通事故死亡人数及其9个相关影响因素数据为例，采用逐步回归的方法，通过SAS系统筛选出主要6个影响因素；对于定性因素，以2003～2005年的相关数据为例，采用不确定性决策方法确定主要定性影响因素。最后通过拟合检验，证明了该方法的可行性。To study the traffic safety in fature precisely,this paper. divided the traffic safety impact factors into quantitative fators and qualitative factors. For former type, stepwise regression method was applied and six facters was selected out by SAS system based on the population of dead people and nine related ingredients during the year of 1983 to 2005. For later one, main factors was selected by adopting no-sure decision-making method based on the correlative data from the year of 2003 to 2005. At last, the method is proved practical by fitting test.

关 键 词：交通安全 逐步回归 不确定性决策 筛选 影响因素 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理] TQ323.8[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]