基于主成分分析和灰色预测方法的房地产预警体系研究  

A Research on Urban Real Estate-Warning with the Method of Principal Component and Grey Prediction

作　　者：余凯[1] 

机构地区：[1]福建工程学院

出　　处：《哈尔滨商业大学学报（社会科学版）》2008年第6期17-24,共8页Journal of Harbin University of Commerce:Social Science Edition

基　　金：福建省青年科技人才创新项目(2006F3007)

摘　　要：房地产预警体系是房地产宏观调控体系的重要组成部分。本文利用房地产相关经济理论,以福州市为例,选择和构造了7个房地产预警复合指标,并通过主成分分析法,确定了每个指标在预警体系中的权重,同时结合预警界限,判断了每个指标历年的监测结果,进而求出福州市房地产历年的综合警度,最后利用灰色预测模型对福州市未来两年房地产的发展情况进行了预测。The real estate early - warning is a very important part of marco - control of the real estate. Based on the theory of the real estate, taking Fuzhou for example, this paper firstly selects seven complex real estate indices which can reflect the real estate early -warning, and then determine the weight of every with the method of principal component. Secondly, according to the warning limit, we judge the monitoring results of the real estate indices every year. Ulteriorly, we makes and empirical analysis of the development of Fuzhou＇ s real estate, obtain the early - warning results. Finally we adopt the GM （1,1）model to predict the future about Fuzhou＇ s real estate in two years, and we find its trend is Sustainable thermal.

关 键 词：房地产 预警 主成份 灰色预测 

分 类 号：F293.30[经济管理—国民经济]