广义帕雷托分布在重庆暴雨强降水研究中的应用  

Application of Generalized Pareto Distribution to the Research of Extreme Rainfall of Chongqing

作　　者：程炳岩[1] 丁裕国[2] 张金铃[2] 江志红[2] 

机构地区：[1]重庆市气候中心,重庆401147 [2]南京信息工程大学江苏省气象灾害国家重点实验室,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《高原气象》2008年第5期1004-1009,共6页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF2007-24);国家自然科学基金项目(40675043)共同资助

摘　　要：引进广义帕雷托分布(GPD),借助于现代L-矩估计方法,模拟重庆地区极端降水事件,推算一定重现期的极端降水量分位数。模拟试验表明,基于超门限峰值法(POT)的GPD不但计算简便,而且基本不受原始序列样本量的影响,具有全部取值域的高精度稳定拟合(包括高端厚尾部),与GEV模拟结果相比,GPD具有更高精度和稳定性,更为实用。It is introduced that a new can be described as GPD （Generalized Pareto Distribution） by which the probability distribution of the extreme precipitation events can be fitted. The extreme precipita- tion events are simulated by means of GPD and GEV with estimated parameters by using L-moment method and the quantiles of rainstorm or severe precipitation events with a given return period are estimated in Chonqing area. Numerical simulations show that POT （Peaks Over Threshold）-based GPD is advantageous in its simple operation and practically to increase effective sample size of the primitive series, and producing steady high-precision fittings in the whole field of values （including the high-end heavy tailed）. In comparison, BM （Block Maximum）-based GEV is limited, to some extent, to the probability and quantile simulation, thereby showing that GPD is an extension of GEV＇ the former being of greater utility and higher significance to climate research compared to the latter.

关 键 词：广义帕雷托分布 广义极值分布 日降水量 暴雨 

分 类 号：P458.121.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]