宁夏气象灾害变化及其对粮食产量的影响  

Changes of Meteorological Disasters and Their Impacts on Grain Crop Yield in Ningxia

作　　者：武艳娟[1] 李玉娥[1] 刘运通[1] 黄琰[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所／农业部农业环境与气候变化重点实验室,北京100081 [2]中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京100029

出　　处：《中国农业气象》2008年第4期491-495,共5页Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology

基　　金：“十一五”科技支撑计划“执行《联合国气候变化框架公约》的支撑技术研究”(2007BAC03A07);中英合作项目“气候变化对中国农业的影响”(II期)

摘　　要：利用宁夏23个站点1961-2004年的年降水量、冰雹发生次数和无霜期数据,1991-2006年宁夏水稻、小麦、玉米、马铃薯产量数据,粮食总产量和干旱、冰雹、冷冻害的受灾成灾面积数据,分析了宁夏干旱、冰雹和霜冻三种主要气象灾害的变化趋势及其对粮食生产的影响。结果表明:近年来,宁夏地区的旱灾指数在波动中增加,干旱发生的强度和频率有增加趋势,干旱的影响加重;冰雹的年均发生次数有明显减少趋势,但冰雹影响的程度和范围有所增大;无霜期天数增加,霜期缩短。干旱是影响宁夏主要粮食作物产量和粮食总产量的最主要的灾害;对于冷冻害和冰雹对粮食作物产量的影响,一方面与灾害的发生时间和发生区域有关,另一方面还与作物的主要生育期及作物种植的地理位置有关。The data of annual precipitation, hail occurrence, frost-flee period from 23 meteorological stations in 1961 -2004 in Ningxia, and the data of the grain crop yields, such as rice, wheat, corn and potato, total grain grain crop yields and area affected by disaster in 1991 -2006 were used to analyze the variability of important meteorological disasters and their impacts on grain crop yield in Ningxia. The results indicated that the drought index increased with fluctuation. The intensity and frequency of drought increased, and the impacts of drought increased. The degree and the area of hail occurrences increased, though the annual average occurrence showed a declining trend. The frost-flee period lengthened, and the frost period shortened. The main meteorological disaster affecting crop and grain crop yield was drought. The impacts of cold and hail disasters varied according to their distribution and occurrence time. The crop growing period and geographic distribution of the crop planting was related to the impacts of cold and hail disasters.

关 键 词：气象灾害 粮食生产 旱灾指数 灰色关联度 

分 类 号：S42[农业科学—植物保护] P425.55[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]