多元可变参数需求预测模型分析与应用  

Analysis and application of demand forecasting model with multi-element variable parameters

作　　者：杨洁[1,2] 杨育[1] 宋李俊[1] 梁学栋[1] 赵小华[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆大学机械工程学院,重庆400030 [2]重庆通信学院,重庆400035

出　　处：《重庆大学学报（自然科学版）》2008年第11期1241-1246,共6页Journal of Chongqing University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70601037);重庆市科技攻关资助项目(CSTC,2007AC2039)

摘　　要：针对现有区域物流需求预测目标单一、预测数据复杂的问题,提出了多元可变参数的物流需求预测模型。在分析区域物流需求预测影响因素,并建立区域物流需求预测指标体系的基础上,运用粗糙集理论对预测指标进行预处理,建立多输入-多输出小波网络(multi-input andmulti-output wavelet network,MMWNN)多元预测模型,采用迭代梯度下降法和逐步检验法确定预测网络中的可变参数。利用粗糙集约简后的评价指标来实现对多元区域物流需求的预测,实例仿真结果表明该模型具有较高的预测精度和有效度。A forecasting model for logistics demand was presented to overcome the limitations of single goal forecasts of logistics demand and forecast data complexity. Based on the forecasting evaluation index and pretreatment of rough set theory, a multi-input and multi-output wavelet network （MMWNN） model for forecasting multi-element regional logistics demand was studied. The network configuration was confirmed using the stepwise checkout and iterative gradient descent methods. After rough set reduction, the evaluation index was used to forecast the multi-element regional logistics demand. The results of the numerical example indicate the feasibility and effectiveness of the model.

关 键 词：预测模型 小波网络 物流需求 粗糙集 

分 类 号：TP273[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]