住房价格上涨与其影响因素之间的关系研究——基于VEC模型的实证分析  

The Relation between Housing Price Rising and Its Influencial Factors——Analysis Based on Vector Error Correction Model

作　　者：原鹏飞[1] 邓嫦琼[1] 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学金融系,福建厦门361005

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2008年第11期83-86,92,共5页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目<基于CGE模型的房地产市场变化影响及其政策模拟分析>(70671086)

摘　　要：通过建立向量误差修正模型,对中国近年来住房价格持续上涨的原因进行了分析。结果表明,土地价格的快速上涨、金融对房地产业的过度支持以及在住房价格继续上涨预期刺激下的投机因素是中国住房价格上涨过快的主要原因。近年来中国住房价格的持续快速上涨在很大程度上是一种泡沫现象。With vector error correction model, we analyze the reasons that cause the prompt rising of housing price in China. The results shows that the prompt rise of land price, excess supportive on real - estate of finance and speculation with the expectation of continuing rising of housing price were the main reasons that caused housing price continue to rise, to a great extent, the continue rise of housing price in China in recent years was a phenomenon of bubble.

关 键 词：住房价格 土地价格 房地产贷款 向量误差修正模型 

分 类 号：F224.1[经济管理—国民经济]