基于生态足迹修正模型的矿业城市生态承载力研究  

Study on the ecological carrying capacity in mining city based on the modified model of ecological footprint

作　　者：顾康康[1,2] 刘景双[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所,吉林长春130012 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049

出　　处：《煤炭学报》2008年第11期1314-1318,共5页Journal of China Coal Society

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)基金资助项目(2004CB418507)

摘　　要：为进一步改善生态足迹模型,提高模型评价的精确性,对生产可能性曲线进行了分析.分析表明,经济发展和科技进步对生态承载力具有促进作用,从而改善了区域生态赤字.引入社会经济系统指数改进生态足迹模型,并以抚顺市为例进行验证,通过验证修正模型精确度提高了7.3%.研究结果表明:基于改进后的生态足迹模型,1985—2005年抚顺市人均生态承载力增长缓慢;人均生态足迹增长快速,从2.29 hm2增至4.33 hm2,增长了89.08%,其中1995—2000年人均生态足迹增长率最大,达到年均10.47%;人均生态赤字逐年加剧,2005年达到-3.35 hm2;人均生态足迹构成以化石能源用地、草地、耕地为主,2005年化石能源用地比重达到79.04%;万元GDP所消耗的生态足迹从12.57 hm2下降为2.49 hm2.With the research on the relation between ecological carring capacity （EC ） and ecological footprint （EF） by the static and dynamic model, a conclusion was drawn that the development of ecological capacity would be improved by the progress of economic and science technology, which would improve the status of ecological deficit. Based on the theory, social-economy system development index was introduced in the EF model, and Fushun City was taken as an example, the precision of the modified model enhanced 7. 3 % by the test. The results show that based on the modified model of EF, from 1985 to 2005, the per capital Ec of Fushun City increased slowly; the per capital EF increased from 2.29 hm^2 to 4. 33 hm^2, the increase rate was 89. 08%, the annual increase rate was 10. 47% from 1995 to 2000, which was the biggest during 1985-2005 ; the per capital ecological deficit was increased year by year, it was - 3.35 hm^2 in 2005 ; the main compositions of per capital EF were fossil fuel, pasture and farmland, and the proportion of fossil fuel was 79. 04% in 2005 ; the EF per ten thousands yuan GDP reduced from 12.57 hm^2 to 2.49 hm^2, the efficiency of resource use was improved gradually.

关 键 词：生态足迹 修正模型 生态承载力 生产可能性曲线 

分 类 号：X171.4[环境科学与工程—环境科学]