改进的油气管道风险专家评分方法  

Improved Experts Graded Method of Pipeline Risk Assessment

作　　者：冯斌[1] 李大全[1] 廖国威[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油天然气管道科学研究院

出　　处：《油气储运》2008年第11期4-8,共5页Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation

摘　　要：通过深入分析《管道风险管理手册》中的专家评分法,发现在一些方面存在着不尽合理的问题。对这些方面的问题进行了改进和修正,提出了适合我国实际情况的油气管道半定量专家评分算法模型.并提出了评价体系、可接受风险、风险调整方案的确定原则,增强了利用半定量专家打分法进行管道风险评价的实用性和客观性。Through thoroughly analyzing the Experts Graded Method in the book of《Pipeline Risk Management Manual》written by Mr.W.Kent Muhlbauer,some illogical problems are discovered in some aspects.Based on some improvements and amendments about these problems,a new algorithm model of Semi-quantitative Experts Graded is put forward,which is adapted to the facts in China.And basic principles for establishing evaluation system,acceptable risk value,risk adjust precept,which used in the process of pipeline risk are also put forward,therefore,the practicability and objectivity of using Semi-quantitative Experts Graded Method to evaluate pipeline risk will be advanced.

关 键 词：管道 风险评价 专家评分法 W.Kent模型改进 

分 类 号：X45[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] TU753.8[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]