影响大坝防洪安全随机因子的时变特性及其量化方法  

Time-varying effect of stochastic factors on flood safety of dams and their quantitative evaluation methods

作　　者：范子武[1,2] 姜树海[1,2] 李运辉[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]南京水利科学研究院,江苏南京210029 [2]水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《岩土工程学报》2008年第11期1632-1636,共5页Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering

基　　金：国家"十一五"科技支撑计划项目(2006BAC14B03);国家"十一五"科技支撑计划项目(2006BAC05B03);国家自然科学基金项目(50579038);国家自然科学基金项目(50679043)

摘　　要：大坝防洪安全受到诸多随机因素的影响。随着时间的推移,这些影响大坝防洪安全的随机因素又表现出显著的时变特性。分析了大坝的防洪随机时变特性,论证了缓变性和陡变性作用对大坝防洪安全的影响是极为显著的,重点分析了大坝长期运行过程中各种随机因子的时变特性及其对防洪安全的影响。针对坝顶沉陷、泥沙淤积、泄洪闸门事故等典型因子,分别提出了衰减函数法、综合分析法和贝叶斯推断法三种定量化分析方法。The flood safety of dams is subjected to various stochastic factors. With the elapse of time, those factors having negative impact on the flood control safety are of obvious time-varying characteristics. The time-varying characteristics of flood control of dams due to this effect, both the impact of mild change effect and steep change effect, are demonstrated, then the time-varying characteristics of various stochastic factors during the dam ageing as well as their effect on flood safety are analyzed. With regard to the following 3 kinds of stochastic factors during the long-term operation of dams： settlement of dam top, deposition of sediment and failure of flood releasing gates, the quantitative evaluation methods, that is, attenuation function approach, comprehensive analysis approach and Bayesian approach, are put forward.

关 键 词：时变效应 衰减函数 贝叶斯推断 水库调洪随机数学模型 定量化分析 

分 类 号：TV87[水利工程—水利水电工程]