用灰色系统理论预测某铀矿排风井周边土壤中铀的质量分数  

Application of the grey system theory for forecasting the content of ^(238)U in soil near a uranium mine exhaust outlet

作　　者：叶勇军[1] 丁德馨[1] 李向阳[1] 周星火[1] 刘栋[1] 

机构地区：[1]南华大学核资源与安全工程学院,湖南衡阳421001

出　　处：《铀矿冶》2008年第4期182-185,共4页Uranium Mining and Metallurgy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(0575048);国家安监局安全生产科技计划项目(06-391);湖南省安全生产科技计划项目(HN08-06)

摘　　要：为预测铀矿排风井周边土壤中铀的质量分数,基于灰色系统的建模、关联度分析和残差辨识理论,建立了常规GM(1,1)预测模型。根据2001—2006年某铀矿排风井周边土壤中铀质量分数的监测数据,证实该模型预测结果与实际监测结果吻合较好,并且预测精度等级较高;同时外推预测了2007年该铀矿排风井周边土壤中铀质量分数,预测结果与实际监测结果的相对误差为4.54%,表明GM(1,1)预测模型具有较高的实用价值,为铀矿排风井周边土壤中铀质量分数的预测提供了一种方便有效的方法。In order to forecast the content of ^238U in soil near a uranium mine exhaust outlet,a general GM（1,1） forecasting model was established based on grey system theory, analyzing association degree and residual error distinction. According to the measuring datum of the content of ^238U in soil near a uranium mine exhaust outlet from 2001 to 2006, used the model to forecast the content of ^238U in soil, The results show that the forecasting value agrees with the measuring results and the forecasting precision is higher; at the same time the content of ^238U in soil in 2007 is also forecasted based on the model,the relative error was 4.8% ,which shows the GM（1,1） forecasting model has higher practical value, and is a effective method for forecasting the content of ^238U in soil near a uranium mine exhaust outlet.

关 键 词：灰色理论 铀质量分数 预测 GM(1 1)模型 放射性污染 

分 类 号：X53[环境科学与工程—环境工程] X837