大畈核电站拟址空气湿球温度推算  

Calculation of the Wet Bulb Temperature Among Key Meteorological Parameters of Final Heat Sink of Inland Nuclear Power Station

作　　者：袁业畅[1] 陈正洪[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉区域气候中心,430074

出　　处：《气象》2008年第11期69-73,共5页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：湖北省发展与改革委员会核电项目筹备处资助

摘　　要：确定最终热阱系统的容量时,必须规定设计基准气象参数,首先确认了内陆核电站最终热阱关键气象参数之一为空气湿球温度。选取湖北大畈核电站拟选站址所在地通山县气象站的三种湿球温度数据序列———近10年最热月日最高值、历年最热月日最高值、历年最高值,分别用对数、Gumbel及多项式等3种曲线进行概率拟合,并分别计算了不同重现期的参数值。结果表明:日资料拟合的极值略高于历年最高值的拟合结果,历年最高值的拟合值更接近于实际情况;多项式拟合尽管拟合效果好,但有一个不可突破的最大值,显然具有局限性;选取近10年最热月日最高值进行拟合,可以弥补缺乏长期观测的不足;Gumbel曲线拟合概率误差比对数曲线的小。最终推荐采用Gumbel曲线对历年最高值进行拟合,湖北大畈核电站50年、100年、500年、1000年重现期湿球温度的极值分别为:30.3℃、30.5℃、31.1℃和31.3℃。The wet bulb temperature among key meteorological parameters of final heat sink of inland nuclear power is determined as air wet bulb temperature. According to daily maximum air wet bulb temperature of hottest month for last 10a and for last 30a, and yearly maximum air wet bulb temperature for last 30a from Tongshan meteorological station near the Dafan Nuclear Power Plant, three kinds of curves including logarithm, Gumbel and polynomials curves are used to fit the distribution of the probability with maximum air wet bulb temperature and to calculate the possible value once for different periods. The result suggests that yearly maximum air wet bulb temperature for more than 30a and Gumbel curve fitting are suitable for calculating of parameter, although polynomial curve fitting is best, a maximum value can＇t be overpass that limits its further application. According to the yearly maximum fitted by Gurnbel curve, the final extreme value once for 50a, 100a, 500a, 1000a are 30.3℃ , 30.5℃, 31. 1℃ and 31.3℃ respectively for the Dafan nuclear power plant.

关 键 词：核电站 最终热阱 湿球温度 概率拟合 极值 

分 类 号：P631.443[天文地球—地质矿产勘探] TU831.1[天文地球—地质学]