参数累积估计灰色模型及地面沉降预测  

Accumulating method GM(1,1) model and prediction of of land subsidence

作　　者：李洪然[1] 张阿根[2] 叶为民[1] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学地下建筑与工程系,上海200092 [2]上海房屋土地资源管理局,上海200002

出　　处：《岩土力学》2008年第12期3417-3421,共5页Rock and Soil Mechanics

摘　　要：基于传统GM(1,1)地面沉降预测模型的非稳定性,引入参数累积估计方法来代替最小二乘法,构建了参数累积估计的灰色沉降预测模型。通过对上海市地面沉降的预测,证实模型降低了矩阵条件数,提高了沉降预测的稳定性,进而对上海市分层沉降进行了预测,并给出相应的模型稳定性判别,预测结果给出了上海沉降的发展趋势,为地面沉降的合理防治提供了帮助。To improve the stability of traditional GM（1, 1 ） used in land subsidence prediction, the accumulating method is introduced to replace the least square method; and the accumulating method GM（1, 1） is established. By prediction of Shanghai land subsidence, it is shown that the condition number of matrix fall, stability of model is improved. Furthermore, the layer subsidence are predicted with the model stability judgement. The results show the trend of subsidence in Shanghai and give the help of subsidence prevention and curing.

关 键 词：灰色模型GM(1 1) 累积法 参数估计 模型稳定性 地面沉降预测 分层沉降预测 

分 类 号：TU470[建筑科学—结构工程]