基于农村物流需求量的组合预测分析  

Combined Forecast Analysis Based on Rural Logistics Demand

作　　者：窦宁[1] 赵庆祯[1] 黄春波[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东师范大学,山东济南250014

出　　处：《物流科技》2008年第12期96-99,共4页Logistics Sci-Tech

摘　　要：农村物流需求量的预测对于农村物流的发展有重要意义。文章把农村消费品零售总额作为农村物流需求量预测指标,通过分析各影响因素,建立了多元回归、双指数平滑及移动平均单预测模型。根据得出的单项预测误差数据,采用折扣系数法建立组合预测模型,使得组合预测模型预测误差平方和最小,预测能力明显优于单项预测模型。Rural logistics demand forecast is very important to the development of rural logistics. This paper takes total retail sales of consumer goods in the rural areas as rural logistics demand forecast indication, establishes multiple regression forecast model、Double exponential smoothing forecast model and moving average forecast model by analyzing some related factors. Then raised an combined forecast model by discount coefficient method. This model has the smallest error, and its predictability is better than individual forecast models.

关 键 词：农村物流 组合预测 多元回归 双指数平滑 折扣系数 

分 类 号：F252[经济管理—国民经济]