福建省电网中长期水文预报系统设计与开发  

Design and Development of Mid-and Long-Term Hydrological Forecast System in Fujian Powersystem

作　　者：张世钦[1] 张俊[2] 程春田[2] 申建建[2] 

机构地区：[1]福建电力调度通信中心,福建福州350003 [2]大连理工大学土木水利学院,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2008年第6期58-61,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50679011);高校博士点基金资助项目(20050141008)

摘　　要：利用Java技术平台,采用双机群集数据库系统(Oracle 10g)成功设计并开发了基于Web的福建省电网中长期水文预报系统。将长期预报和中期预报分离,前者采用多种数理统计模型,以月或旬为预报时段提供未来1 a的径流预报及相关的频率预报;后者采用考虑城市气象预报的人工神经网络模型,以日为预报时段提供未来7 d的自动、滚动式径流预报。重点阐述了系统架构设计、业务逻辑设计、功能模块设计和程序开发过程中的关键技术问题。A web-based and B/S structured software system for mid-and long-term hydrological forecast in Fujian powersystem is designed and developed, in which Java technology platform and Oracle cluster system are used. Long-term forecast and mid-term forecast are separated, several statistical models and frequency analysis are used in the former to forecast the runoff in future one year by month or by 1/3 month while artificial neural network model with consideration of city rainfall forecast is used in the later to make automatic and rolling forecast of runoff in future 1-7 days. This paper focuses on the design of system structure, function, programming and some key technical issues during the development.

关 键 词：中长期水文预报 数理统计模型 人工神经网络 Java技术平台 B/S架构 

分 类 号：TV12[水利工程—水文学及水资源] TV213