火控系统精度预测分析的马氏链模型  

Markov Chains Model of Precision Forecast and Analysis in Fire Control System

作　　者：夏德安[1] 朱宏[1] 

机构地区：[1]防空兵指挥学院研究生队,河南郑州450052

出　　处：《火炮发射与控制学报》2008年第4期131-133,共3页Journal of Gun Launch & Control

摘　　要：针对目前火控系统精度预测分析与评估方法中存在的不足,提出了一种利用马氏链基本方程进行精度预测分析与评估的新方法。通过分析影响防空武器火控系统精度的各种误差源以及马氏链基本方程的特征,结合火控系统在输出射击诸元时所处的各种状态,得出了火控系统精度预测分析的马氏链解算模型。通过对该模型的计算与分析,得出这个模型中包含一个吸收状态,并且从每个非吸收状态出发,能以正的概率经有限次转移到达某个吸收状态,是一个吸收链模型。能对火控系统的精度进行预测和评估,符合客观规律。Aimed at the existed lack nowadays in the precision forecast, analysis and evaluation methods of fire control system, a new kind of method was put forward, this method made use of basic Markov chains equation to perform precision forecast, analysis and evaluation. By means of analysis of error source which had influence on fire control system precision of air defense weapon and the characteristics of basic Markov chains equation, combined with various states that fire control system output fire data, Markov chains calculation model of fire control system precision forecast and analysis was acquired. With the help of calculation and analysis of the model, it obtained that the model included an absorb state. From the point of view of each non-absorb state, some absorb states can be arrived at by plus probability in finity steps transformation, this was an absorb chain model. The model can forecast and evaluate the precision of fire control system, and it consists with objective and realistic rules.

关 键 词：计算数学 马氏链模型 火控系统 系统精度 误差源 

分 类 号：TP393[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]