海门市1969～2007年原发性肝细胞癌死亡率时间序列的游程检验和线性趋势检验  

Runs Test and Linear Trend Test of the Time Series of Primary Hepatocellular Carcinoma Mortality in Haimen City from 1969 to 2007

作　　者：黄培新[1] 郁新森[1] 陆洪斌[1] 林文尧[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省海门市疾病预防控制中心,江苏海门226100

出　　处：《中国现代医生》2009年第1期32-33,共2页China Modern Doctor

基　　金：十一.五国家科技支撑项目(2006BAI02A03);国际合作项目[国科遗办审字(1999)002]2P01Ca40737NC1.USA

摘　　要：目的探讨海门市1969～2007年原发性肝细胞癌死亡率时间序列的变动趋势及原因。方法海门市于1973年进行5年全市人口死因回顾性调查(1969～1973),建立了人口出生死亡报告制度,被卫生部公安部定为全国死因统计试点单位,2006年被接纳为国际抗癌联盟成员单位。本文描述海门市1969～2007年HCC死亡率时间序列,并用游程检验作时间序列的平稳性检验,用线性趋势检验作时间序列的显著性检验。结果HCC死亡率1969～1979年从33.18/10万上升到49.32/10万,年均递增速度为4.04%;1979～1989年从49.32/10万上升到70.64/10万,年均递增速度为3.66%;1989～1999年从70.64/10万下降到54.94/10万,年均递增速度为-2.28%;1999～2007年从54.94/10万下降到50.09/10万,年均递增速度为-1.15%。游程检验结果显示时间序列为非平稳性的,线性趋势检验结果表明1990年以后HCC死亡率呈现一定的下降趋势,且有统计学意义,下降趋势由随机因素造成的概率很小。结论1990年以后海门市HCC死亡率下降趋势与"改水、管粮、预防乙型肝炎"为主要内容的环境因素干预有关。Objective To evaluate the trend and contributing factors of time series changes of primary hepatocellular carcinoma（HCC）mortality between 1969 and 2007 in Haimen City. Methods A five-year retrospective survey was conducted in Haimen City in 1973 to verify the cause of death among all city population between 1969 and 1973. The birth/death reporting system was also established and was defined as one of the nation＇s pilot city for vital statistics by Ministry of Health and Ministry of Public Security. In 2006 it was accepted by the International Union Against Cancer（ UICC ） as a member institute. This paper describes the time series changes of HCC mortality in Haimen City between 1969 and 2007. Runs test was performed as stability test for the time series and linear trend test was performed as significance test. Results HCC mortality increased from 33.18 per 100,000 in 1969 to 49.32 per 100,000 in 1979,with an annual increasing rate of 4.04%. Between 1979 and 1989 the mortality increased from 49.32 to 70.64 per 100,000,with an annual increasing rate of 3.66%. Between 1989 and 1999 the mortality decreased from 70.64 to 54.94 per 100,000,with an annual increasing rate of -2.28%. Between 1999 and 2007 the mortality decreased from 54.94 to 50.09 per 100,000,with an annual increasing rate of-1.15%. The runs test showed an instable time series,and the linear trend test indicated a statistical significant decreasing trend of HCC mortality since 1990. It is unlikely that this decreasing trend is caused by random. Conclusion The decreasing trend of HCC mortality in Haimen City since 1990 is related with the intervention of environmental factors including ＇ changing drinking water, changing staple food and prevention of HBV infection＇ as major components.

关 键 词：HCC死亡率 时间序列 游程检验 线性趋势检验 

分 类 号：R735.7[医药卫生—肿瘤]